The maps presented are all from the SNZ medium assumption series for 2016. The projections are presented by total population, total growth, and annual rates of growth. Additionally total net migration, annual births, median age, and age specific (under five and over 64 years) are provided. It should be noted, however, that these projections, while representing SNZ’s best estimate given current conditions are indicative only.
In terms of total number (Figure 47) and total increase (Figure 48), there is pattern of reinforcing current growth (as measured by change since the 2001 Census). In addition to ongoing developments, further expansion or new developments are predicted to occur east of the current Flat Bush-Chapel Heights area and Whenuapai-Hobsonville region. In addition a number of growth corridors are visible (eg. Kumeu -Waimakau, Wairau - Greenhithe). In terms of rates of growth (Figure 49) the majority of high proportional increases are indicated as ‘greenfield’ developments on the urban fringe or township hinterland.
Net migration (Figure 50) provides an indication of a population transfers as opposed to a natural increase or declines. While natural increases tend to change demographic characteristics slowly, population movement can create significant changes over shorter periods. Those growth areas identified as being ‘greenfield’ type developments in Figure 49, are obviously dependent on such movement, though the Auckland CBD area with an existing base is also expected to see strong positive migration.
Conversely a relatively large extent of the region is expected to see small to moderate negative net migration with any increase due to natural increase (births over deaths). Projected annual live births (Figure 51), show little overlap with net migration in terms of areas of strong growth with the exception of the Flat Bush – Chapel Heights area.
The median age is expected to rise by almost 2 years in the 2016 medium projection. The general pattern is similar to the 2006 map with age increases being particularly widespread in rural areas. Correspondingly the under five population is similar in overall pattern, but the proportions are generally projected to decrease from their current levels. As might be expected then, the proportion of the over 64 year age group is anticipated as increasing. Again rural areas see some increase as do areas adjacent to CAUs currently with high proportions of the over 64 years population.
