As underlined in the previous sections there is substantial regional and local variation across virtually all of the Census statistics. While neighbourhood variation is critical to understanding the nature of a regional population, there is also a need to make summary descriptions of a region. Unfortunately, given their size, DHB or even TA summaries may not always adequately describe their constituent communities, instead blurring disparate neighbourhoods into an arbitrary average.
This averaging has important implications for planning, target setting, and monitoring of public health services. Most obviously, averaging has the effect of removing disparity. Another important consequence as a result of relying solely on TA or DHB population summaries is that comparisons may be misleading where regions are composed of distinct rather than more homogenous communities.
The programmes required, critical factors, population trends, and health shifts are likely to be fundamentally different in a region composed of multiple distinct communities even though the original, but averaged, figures may compare with more homogenous neighbouring regions. Put another way, a region composed of a mix of very high and low SES populations would respond very differently to that of one primarily consisting of a middle class population even though their averaged population summaries appear the same.
By way of providing both a community summary and depiction of high level heterogeneity, TAs have been de-composed into ‘Community Zones’ (Figure 55). In forming these zones three primary factors were considered, NZDep scores, a measure of ‘rurality’ by way of CAU size and population density, and the capture of an adequate total population for each TACZ (Table 2). Within the urban City areas the population of these TACZ are greater than 60,000. Among the District and rural area TACZ populations generally run upwards of 9,000. The suburbs and localities that by and large describe the extent of the TACZ are provided in Table 1.
This section reports on 2006 summary population figures, the 2016 population projection components and a variety of charts outlining, population, resident and household based statistics. Following this a variety of age pyramids are presented including age sex pyramids, ethnic age pyramids, and projected population-age pyramids. Not all TACZ are included with the ethnic and projected pyramids due to limited population sizes. In these cases a total rural pyramid is used.
In terms of the reading and utility of TACZ, two general approaches are anticipated. The first is for a rough guide for general programme targeting and prioritising (though additional specific analysis is anticipated). The second is reading across TACZ within TA or DHBs to give some indication of community variation. Consequently the tables and charts are laid out in a general North-South axis concordant with TA/DHB associations.
The 19 TACZ are depicted in Figure 55 by a 2006 CAU total resident population cartogram. The TACZ themselves are colour themed by TA, and the size of each indicates their respective total population. Of note are the ‘Satellite’ TACZ which can be seen to equal or exceed the size their rural hinterland in population terms.
The population summary figures presented in Table 2 will be described with respect to the individual charts following the tables. As a general overview on the TACZ regarding intra-TA variation, all TA demonstrate substantial variation across a large number of statistics indicating real structural or community differences. Manukau City in particular has a highly divergent east-west split where the (averaged) TA level figures alone do not accurately depict the physical communities.
In terms of the 2016 projected population components (Table 3), while all TACZ see overall growth there is considerable variation in both total numbers and rates of growth within their respective TAs. The highest increases in terms of population is anticipated in Manukau West and the (Auckland) Isthmus Central (38,000 each).
In Manukau West the sole driver is seen to be that of natural increase as opposed to Isthmus Central with migration attributable growth in the order of 60%. In addition a number of zones (Isthmus Southeast and West, and Papakura Urban) are projected to have negative net migration despite total population growth. With respect to projected live births Manukau West again stands out (48,000), with Waitakere Urban and Isthmus Central following at 28,000 each.
